XRP Price Prediction: How Regulatory Wins and Technical Setup Could Drive Gains Toward $2.30

#XRP

• Technical Foundation: XRP trading above its 20-day moving average with Bollinger Bands suggesting room toward $2.30 resistance, while MACD shows weakening bearish momentum.
• Regulatory Catalyst: Ripple's FCA approval for UK payment services reduces regulatory uncertainty and may facilitate institutional adoption ahead of new licensing rules.
• On-Chain Confidence: Increased whale transaction activity indicates sophisticated investor accumulation, often preceding price appreciation when combined with positive fundamentals.

XRP Price Prediction

Technical Analysis: XRP Shows Bullish Consolidation Above Key Moving Average

XRP is currently trading at $2.1013, demonstrating resilience above its 20-day moving average of $1.9880. According to BTCC financial analyst John, this positioning suggests underlying strength despite recent volatility. The MACD indicator, while still negative at -0.1439 for the signal line and -0.0754 for the MACD line, shows a narrowing histogram at -0.0685, indicating weakening downward momentum. 'The convergence in MACD readings often precedes trend reversals,' John notes. 'We're seeing selling pressure diminish.'

Bollinger Bands present a constructive picture with the price positioned between the middle band ($1.9880) and upper band ($2.3006). The $1.95 support level mentioned in market reports aligns closely with the lower Bollinger Band at $1.6755, creating a multi-layered support zone. 'A sustained break above the 20-day MA could trigger momentum toward the $2.30 resistance,' John observes. 'The technical setup favors cautious Optimism for Q1 2026.'

Regulatory Milestone and Whale Activity Signal Growing XRP Confidence

Ripple's recent FCA approval for UK payment services arrives ahead of Britain's new crypto licensing framework, creating what BTCC financial analyst John calls 'a strategic regulatory advantage.' This development, combined with surging whale transactions, suggests institutional players are positioning for the next phase. 'Regulatory clarity typically precedes institutional inflows,' John explains. 'The FCA approval removes a significant uncertainty for UK-based XRP services.'

Despite short-term holder retreat and a three-day decline testing the $1.95 support, the fundamental backdrop appears strengthening. News of whale accumulation—large transactions typically exceeding $100,000—often signals sophisticated investor confidence. 'When whales accumulate during price dips, it suggests they see value at current levels,' John states. 'The combination of regulatory progress and on-chain activity creates a favorable sentiment foundation.'

Factors Influencing XRP's Price

Ripple Secures FCA Approval for UK Payment Services Ahead of New Crypto Licensing Regime

Ripple has achieved a significant regulatory milestone in the UK, with its subsidiary Ripple Markets UK Ltd obtaining registration approval from the Financial Conduct Authority. The approval grants the company an Electronic Money Institution license under the Money Laundering Regulations, enabling it to provide payment services and issue electronic money.

While the license marks a strategic expansion into regulated markets, Ripple faces notable restrictions. The firm cannot operate automated crypto-fiat exchange machines, offer services to retail clients, or engage with consumers, micro-enterprises, or charities without prior FCA consent. These limitations underscore the cautious approach UK regulators are taking as they prepare to implement a comprehensive crypto licensing framework.

XRP Faces Key Test at $1.95 Support After Three-Day Decline

XRP's 10.5% weekly gain—the strongest among top-five cryptocurrencies—has hit a wall at the $2.35 resistance level. The token's rejection at its 200-day exponential moving average suggests lingering bearish pressure, though the broader structure hints at a potential trend reversal if critical support holds.

Trading volumes surged during the rally before meeting concentrated selling pressure. Market participants now watch the $1.95 level closely—a breach WOULD confirm continued seller dominance, while a rebound could validate the nascent uptrend. The ETF market echoes this tension, with XRP funds recording their first net outflows since US listings began.

XRP Short-Term Holders Retreat as Market Sentiment Cools

XRP's brief rebound above $2 has failed to fully restore market confidence. On-chain data reveals a notable shift among short-term holders, who are now reducing exposure amid choppy price action. The supply held by these investors has dipped from 5.75% to 4.9% in just seven days, signaling growing caution.

Analysts interpret this as profit-taking behavior, with speculative momentum waning. Steph is Crypto highlights the trend, noting its resemblance to risk management strategies during sideways markets. The altcoin's struggle to sustain upward traction underscores broader uncertainty in crypto markets.

Ripple’s XRP Sees Surge in Whale Transactions as Investor Confidence Returns

Ripple’s XRP is experiencing a notable resurgence in large-scale investor activity, with on-chain transactions exceeding $100,000 reaching their highest levels since October 2025. Data from Santiment reveals a sharp spike in XRP Ledger activity, with 2,170 whale transactions recorded on January 5, 2026, followed by 2,802 the next day—a clear signal of renewed institutional interest.

The rebound coincides with XRP’s price recovery from December lows, suggesting whales are accumulating during market stabilization. This surge in high-value transactions mirrors broader cryptocurrency market trends, where capital is rotating back into established assets after recent volatility.

Analysts interpret the movement as a bullish divergence: while retail participation remains subdued, institutional players appear to be positioning for the next market cycle. The XRP Ledger’s infrastructure continues to attract enterprise use cases, further validating its long-term viability beyond speculative trading.

How High Will XRP Price Go?

Based on current technical indicators and fundamental developments, XRP shows potential for measured appreciation toward the $2.30 resistance level in the near term. The convergence of regulatory progress, whale accumulation, and technical positioning above key moving averages creates what BTCC financial analyst John describes as 'a foundation for cautious bullishness.'

'The $2.30 upper Bollinger Band represents the immediate technical target,' John explains. 'A decisive break above this level with volume could open the path toward the $2.50-$2.75 range, particularly if broader crypto market sentiment improves and Ripple continues its regulatory progress globally.' However, he cautions that failure to hold above the 20-day MA could see retesting of the $1.95 support zone. The most likely scenario remains gradual appreciation supported by both technical structure and fundamental developments.